An Introduction to Mathematical Statistics and Its Applications (6th Edition)

Published by Pearson
ISBN 10: 0-13411-421-3
ISBN 13: 978-0-13411-421-7

Chapter 4 Special Distributions - 4.3 The Normal Distribution - Questions - Page 243: 9

Answer

(a) $\color{blue}{\approx 0.0053}$ (b) $\color{blue}{\approx 0.0197}$

Work Step by Step

(a) $\begin{align*} P(X=200) &= {400 \choose 200}(0.55)^{200}(.45)^{200} \\ &\approx (1.0295\times 10^{119})(1.18178\times 10^{-52})(4.39039\times 10^{-70}) \\ P(X=200)\ &\color{blue}{\approx 0.0053} \end{align*}$ (b) A normal approximation may be used since $n=400 \gt 9\left(\dfrac{p}{q}\right) = 9\left(\dfrac{.55}{.45}\right) = 11$ and $n=440 \gt 9\left(\dfrac{q}{p}\right) = 9 \left(\dfrac{.45}{.55}\right) \ge 8$. Since $X\sim \text{Binomial}(n=400,p=.55)$, then $X\stackrel{\Large\cdot}{\sim} N(\mu = np = 400(.55), \sigma^2 = npq = 400(.55)(.45))$. $\begin{align*} P(X\le 199) &= \sum_{k=0}^{199} {400 \choose k}(0.55)^k(.45)^{400-k} \\ &= P\left( \dfrac{X-\mu}{\sigma} \le \dfrac{199 -400(.55)}{\sqrt{400(.55)(.45)}}\right) \\ &= P\left( \dfrac{X-\mu}{\sigma} \le \dfrac{199 -400(.55)+0.5}{\sqrt{400(.55)(.45)}}\right),\quad \text{[ continuity correction ]} \\ &\approx P\left( Z \le \dfrac{-20.5}{\sqrt{99}} \right),\ Z\sim N(0,1) \\ &\approx P(Z\le -2.06 ) \\ &= F_Z(-2.06) \\ P(X\le 199)\ &\color{blue}{\approx 0.0197} \qquad \text{[ see Appendix Table A.1, pp. 675-6 ]} \end{align*}$
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