Discrete Mathematics and Its Applications, Seventh Edition

Published by McGraw-Hill Education
ISBN 10: 0073383090
ISBN 13: 978-0-07338-309-5

Chapter 7 - Section 7.3 - Bayes' Theorem - Exercises - Page 475: 6

Answer

0.30

Work Step by Step

Let $E_{1}$ be the event of soccer players using steroids, $E_{2}$ be the event of soccer players not using steroids and A be the event of testing positive for steroids. Then, $P(E_{1})=\frac{5}{100}$ Also, $P(E_{2})=\frac{95}{100}$, $P(A|E_{1})=\frac{98}{100}$ and $P(A|E_{2})=\frac{12}{100}$. By using Baye's theorem, we get $P(E_{1}|A)=\frac{P(E_{1})P(A|E_{1})}{P(E_{1})P(A|E_{1})+P(E_{2})P(A|E_{2})}=\frac{\frac{5}{100}\times\frac{98}{100}}{\frac{5}{100}\times\frac{98}{100}+\frac{95}{100}\times\frac{12}{100}}=0.30$
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