Discrete Mathematics and Its Applications, Seventh Edition

Published by McGraw-Hill Education
ISBN 10: 0073383090
ISBN 13: 978-0-07338-309-5

Chapter 7 - Section 7.3 - Bayes' Theorem - Exercises - Page 475: 3

Answer

$\frac{3}{4}$

Work Step by Step

Let $E_{1}$ be the event of picking the box 1, $E_{2}$ be the event of picking the box 2 and A be the event of selecting a blue ball. Then, $P(E_{1})=P(E_{2})=\frac{1}{2}$ Also, $P(A|E_{1})=\frac{3}{5}$ and $P(A|E_{2})=\frac{1}{5}$ Using Baye's theorem, we get $P(E_{1}|A)=\frac{P(E_{1})P(A|E_{1})}{P(E_{1})P(A|E_{1})+P(E_{2})P(A|E_{2})}=\frac{\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{3}{5}}{\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{3}{5}+\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{1}{5}}=\frac{3}{4}$
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