Answer
The second model where we assume that the 2 throws are dependent gives a realistic explanation of the outcome of shooting foul shots, since a player gets a confidence boost when he makes the first shot.
Similarly, when a player misses his 1st shot it demoralizes him, and he may not shoot the next one with a good mind, decreasing the chances of shooting the foul shot properly.
Therefore, the 2 events are usually dependent on each other.
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