Essay Questions

What is the halo effect?

One of the first major contributions to psychological study that Danny Kahneman produced was a questionnaire for army recruits designed to undermine and limited the influence of the halo effect. The halo effect is condition of psychological judgment in which positive traits are attributed without warrant to those who have already established an advantageous reputation in one regard. In other words, if one demonstrates superior athletic ability, others are generally more likely to assume that person possesses equally superior traits in other elements of their personality: they might be deemed smarter than they really are or even simply more physically attractive. Likewise, a physically unattractive person might face unwarranted biases against their athletic abilities or intelligence. Essentially, a halo is created around a person’s entire being that is based solely on extrapolation from one single character trait.

What is surprising about the book coming to an end with Danny Kahneman winning a Nobel Prize in Economics?

The book actually ends on the image of a phone ringing with only the implication being that Kahneman was award the Nobel Prize for Economics. In fact, however, that is exactly what occurred. What is not just surprising, but quite amazing—and, for more than a few, controversial—is Kahneman’s college degrees are in the field of psychology and not economics. In fact, he claims to have never taken an economic course throughout his academic career. Nevertheless, the focus of much of his psychological theories have been influential in the specific field of behavioral economics which is concerned with decision-making processes and the impact of human judgment under the influence of market uncertainty.

Whom does the author single out as the iconic victim of confirmation bias in NBA scouting?

Confirmation bias is the term for the psychological tendency to displace objective reasons with an insidiously subtle subjective application that basically comes to “seeing what one wants to see even if it isn’t really there.” Jeremy Lin is singled out as just one of many—but a particularly egregious example—of the oppositional state of conformation theory: not seeing what is there because one doesn’t expect to see. Although highly rated as a prospect, Lin was almost universally judged to be “less athletic” than similar players who were not, like Lin, Asian. The bias toward Lin’s lesser athleticism was deemed to be a confirmation of a general bias toward Asian players when later testing provided data which revealed Lin to be equipped with the quickest first movement of any player so measured. Because of the effects of conformation bias on scouting (and coaching) Lin quite likely came within just a few games of retiring after just his second season before going on to grace the cover of Sports Illustrated and win an NBA championship over the course of a career spanning a decade.