Essentials of Statistics (5th Edition)

Published by Pearson
ISBN 10: 0-32192-459-2
ISBN 13: 978-0-32192-459-9

Chapter 4 - Probability - Review - From Data to Decision - Page 192: 9

Answer

The confusion of the inverse reflects the fact that the statement and its inverse are not the same thing.

Work Step by Step

We first consider the probability that a subject is infected giving a positive test result. We use the equation for probability to find: $P=\frac{number\ of\ desired\ outcomes}{total\ number\ of\ outcomes}$ $P = \frac{17}{17+2}=.895$ We now find the inverse, which is the probability that there is a positive test result given that the subject is infected: $P=\frac{number\ of\ desired\ outcomes}{total\ number\ of\ outcomes}$ $P = \frac{17}{17+6}=.739$ Here, we see that the statement and the inverse are not equal, reflecting the confusion of the inverse.
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