Finite Math and Applied Calculus (6th Edition)

Published by Brooks Cole
ISBN 10: 1133607705
ISBN 13: 978-1-13360-770-0

Chapter 7 - Section 7.6 - Bayes' Theorem and Applications - Exercises - Page 520: 26a

Answer

The probability that youths arrested or charged with a crime had no preschool education is approximately $87 \%$.

Work Step by Step

According to Bayes' theorem: $P(N|C)=\dfrac{P(C|N)P(N)}{P(C|N)P(N)+P(C|N')P(N')}~~~~~~~~(1)$ Here, we have $ P(C|N)=0.51\\ P(C'|N')=0.31\\ P(N')=0.2$ Now, we will now use formula (1) and the given data to obtain: $P(N|C)=\dfrac{P(C|N)P(N)}{P(C|N)P(N)+P(C|N')P(N')}=\dfrac{(0.51)(1-0.2)}{(0.51)(1-0.2)+(0.31)(0.2)}$ or, $ \approx 0.87$ or, $=87 \%$ Thus, we conclude the probability that youths arrested or charged with a crime had no preschool education is approximately $87 \%$.
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