Discrete Mathematics and Its Applications, Seventh Edition

Published by McGraw-Hill Education
ISBN 10: 0073383090
ISBN 13: 978-0-07338-309-5

Chapter 7 - Section 7.3 - Bayes' Theorem - Exercises - Page 477: 17

Answer

$\displaystyle P[F_j|E]=\frac{P(F_j|E)P(E)}{\sum ^n_{i=1} P(E|F_i)P(F_i)}$

Work Step by Step

Observe that $P(E)=P(E\cap S)=P(E \cap (\cup ^n_{i=1}F_i))=P(\cup ^n_{i=1} E\cap F_i)=\sum ^n_{i=1} P(E\cap F_i),$ (the last step is because $F_1,F_2,..., F_n$ are mutually exclusive. Thus, $\displaystyle P[F_j|E]=\frac{P(F_j\cap E)}{P(E)}=\frac{P(F_j|E)P(E)}{\sum ^n_{i=1} P(E\cap F_i)}=\frac{P(F_j|E)P(E)}{\sum ^n_{i=1} P(E|F_i)P(F_i)}$
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