Discrete Mathematics and Its Applications, Seventh Edition

Published by McGraw-Hill Education
ISBN 10: 0073383090
ISBN 13: 978-0-07338-309-5

Chapter 7 - Section 7.3 - Bayes' Theorem - Exercises - Page 476: 11

Answer

= $\frac{21}{29}$ $\approx$ 0.7241

Work Step by Step

Let E = success is predicted. F = Success P(F) =60% = 0.6 P(E|F) = 70% = 0.7 P(E|~F) = 60% = 0.4 Use the complement rule P(~F) = 1- P(F) = 1-0.6= 0.4 Use Bayes Therorem P(F|E)=$\frac{0.7\times0.6}{(0.7\times0.6)+(0.4\times0.4)}$ = $\frac{21}{29}$ $\approx$ 0.7241
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