The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Analysis

This book is offering the reader permission to believe in the seemingly-impossible. As nature itself proves, the unlikely is actually like to occur, even in extremely rare circumstances. Although it seems impossible to believe that impossible fates could arise from each one of our ordinary lives, Taleb encourages the reader to believe. That belief stems from a scientific appreciation of facts, most salient of these being the facts pertaining to Taleb's own success in life which seemed like a pipe dream to her in real time.

The most fascinating consideration of the whole book outside its lengthy appreciation for synchronicity is perhaps Taleb's discussion of turkeys. Because a turkey has no concept for time, the turkey is a fascinating analog for reality and perception, because in their consciousness, there is no consideration of a fluid spectrum of time. There is only one eternal present moment, and in light of that timelessness, the turkey seems to be a natural invitation into a mystical appreciation for nature.

Why be mystical because of chance impossibilities and nature? Because nature is predicated on impossible coincidences, from the big bang to the development of a suitable planet orbiting a star, to the emergence of life where no life was before—all this is unfathomable, scientifically speaking, because the chances were so specific that they are unthinkable. The reality of the universe, scientifically speaking, seems to be that we should expect the unexpected in this natural experience of reality. Why not hope for a Black Swan?

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