Essentials of Statistics (5th Edition)

Published by Pearson
ISBN 10: 0-32192-459-2
ISBN 13: 978-0-32192-459-9

Chapter 5 - Discrete Probability Distributions - 5-3 Binomial Probability Distributions - Page 221: 38

Answer

0.3676, not a good idea to book 21 passengers.

Work Step by Step

The bad case is if more than 19 passengers turn up. We need to find the probability of this. $P(X>19)=P(X=20)+P(X=21)={21 \choose 20} \cdot 0.9005^{20} \cdot 0.0995^1+{21 \choose 21} \cdot 0.9005^{21} \cdot 0.0995^0=0.2569+0.1107=0.3676. $ This is a quite high probability, therefore it is not a good idea to book 21 passengers.
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