Finite Math and Applied Calculus (6th Edition)

Published by Brooks Cole
ISBN 10: 1133607705
ISBN 13: 978-1-13360-770-0

Chapter 7 - Section 7.6 - Bayes' Theorem and Applications - Exercises - Page 519: 20

Answer

$0.9118$

Work Step by Step

According to Bayes' theorem: $P(C|D)=\dfrac{P(D|C)P(C)}{P(D|S)P(S)+P(D|C)P(C)+P(D|L)P(L)}~~~~~~~~(1)$ Here, we have $P(C)=71.1\% =0.711\\ P(S)=5 \% =0.05 \\ P(L)=23.9 \%=0.239\\P(D|C)= 1 \\ P(D|S)=0.371\\ P(D|L)=0.210\\$ Now, we will now use formula (1) and the given data to obtain: $P(C|D)=\dfrac{P(D|C)P(C)}{P(D|S)P(S)+P(D|C)P(C)+P(D|L)P(L)}=\dfrac{(1)(0.711)}{(0.371)(0.05)+(1)(0.711)+(0.210) (0.239)}$ or, $ \approx 0.9118$ Thus, we conclude the probability that the victim of a deadly side-impact accident was driving a car is approximately $0.9118$.
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