Finite Math and Applied Calculus (6th Edition)

Published by Brooks Cole
ISBN 10: 1133607705
ISBN 13: 978-1-13360-770-0

Chapter 7 - Section 7.6 - Bayes' Theorem and Applications - Exercises - Page 519: 19

Answer

$0.1653$

Work Step by Step

According to Bayes' theorem: $P(S|D)=\dfrac{P(D|S)P(S)}{P(D|S)P(S)+P(D|C)+P(C)+P(D|L)P(L)}~~~~~~~~(1)$ Here, we have $P(C)= 45.4 \% =0.454\\ P(S)= 27.3 \% =0.273 \\ P(L)=27.3 \%=0.273\\P(D|C)= 1 \\ P(D|S)=0.371\\ P(D|L)=0.210\\$ Now, we will now use formula (1) and the given data to obtain: $P(S|D)=\dfrac{P(D|S)P(S)}{P(D|S)P(S)+P(D|C)+P(C)+P(D|L)P(L)}=\dfrac{(0.371)(0.273)}{(0.371)(0.273)+(1)(0.454)+0.210(0.273)}$ or, $ \approx 0.1653$ Thus, we conclude the probability that the victim of a deadly side-impact accident was driving an SUV is approximately $0.1653$.
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