Finite Math and Applied Calculus (6th Edition)

Published by Brooks Cole
ISBN 10: 1133607705
ISBN 13: 978-1-13360-770-0

Chapter 7 - Section 7.6 - Bayes' Theorem and Applications - Exercises - Page 518: 8

Answer

$P(Y_{2}|X)=\frac{.3\times .4}{.2\times .3+.3\times .4 + .6\times .3}\approx .33$

Work Step by Step

According to Bayes' theorem: $P(A_{1}|B)=\frac{P(B|A_{1})P(A_{1})}{P(B|A_{1})P(A_{1})+P(B|A_{2})P(A_{2})+P(B|A_{3})P(A_{3})}$ Where $A_{1}, A_{2}, A_{3}$ form a partition of $S$. Meaning that $P(A_{1})+P(A_{2})+P(A_{3})=1$ Here, we have $P(X|Y_{1})= .2$ $P(X|Y_{2})= .3$ $P(X|Y_{3})= .6$ $P(Y_{1})= .3$ $P(Y_{2})= .4$ Be aware, that X and Y equal to B and A in the definition of the theorem, respectively. We know, that $P(Y_{3})=1-P(Y_{1})-P(Y_{2})= 1-.3-.4=.3$ We can substitute into the definition: $P(Y_{2}|X)=\frac{.3\times .4}{.2\times .3+.3\times .4 + .6\times .3}\approx .33$
Update this answer!

You can help us out by revising, improving and updating this answer.

Update this answer

After you claim an answer you’ll have 24 hours to send in a draft. An editor will review the submission and either publish your submission or provide feedback.