Discrete Mathematics and Its Applications, Seventh Edition

Published by McGraw-Hill Education
ISBN 10: 0073383090
ISBN 13: 978-0-07338-309-5

Chapter 7 - Section 7.3 - Bayes' Theorem - Exercises - Page 475: 4

Answer

$\frac{35}{68}$

Work Step by Step

Let $E_{1}$ be the event of choosing box 1, $E_{2}$ be the event of choosing box 2, and A be the event of selecting an orange ball. Then, $P(E_{1})=P(E_{2})=\frac{1}{2}$, $P(A|E_{1})=\frac{3}{7}$ and $P(A|E_{2})=\frac{5}{11}$. Using Baye's theorem, we get $P(E_{2}|A)=\frac{P(E_{2})P(A|E_{2})}{P(E_{1})P(A|E_{1})+P(E_{2})P(A|E_{2})}=\frac{\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{5}{11}}{\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{3}{7}+\frac{1}{2}\times\frac{5}{11}}=\frac{35}{68}$
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