Discrete Mathematics and Its Applications, Seventh Edition

Published by McGraw-Hill Education
ISBN 10: 0073383090
ISBN 13: 978-0-07338-309-5

Chapter 7 - Section 7.1 - An Introduction to Discrete Probability - Exercises - Page 452: 40

Answer

$P(A)=\frac{1}{4}$. $P(C|B=empty)=P(D|B=empty)=\frac{3}{8}.$

Work Step by Step

Suppose the doors are $A,B,C$ and $D$. Without Loss of Generality, assume you choose door $A$, and the game-show host opened the door $B$ to reveal it does not contain the prize. Now if you do not change then your chance of winning is same as before opening door $B$ i.e., $P(A)=\frac{1}{4}$. However if you change, then $P(C \cup D|B=empty)=P(A^c)=\frac{3}{4}$. Since the prize being either of $C$ or $D$ is equally likely, hence $P(C|B=empty)=P(D|B=empty)=\frac{3}{8}.$
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