Discrete Mathematics and Its Applications, Seventh Edition

Published by McGraw-Hill Education
ISBN 10: 0073383090
ISBN 13: 978-0-07338-309-5

Chapter 7 - Section 7.1 - An Introduction to Discrete Probability - Exercises - Page 452: 39

Answer

$P(A|B = empty)$,$P(A) = \frac{1}{3}$, $P(C|B = empty) $

Work Step by Step

Suppose the doors are $A$,$ B$ and $C$. Without Loss of Generality, assume you choose door $A$, and the game-show host opened the door $B$ to reveal it does not contain the prize. The statement $P(A) = P(C) = \frac{1}{2}$ is wrong because it is based on the extra information that $B$ does not contain the prize. The accurate expression is $P(A) = \frac{1}{3}$, $P(C|B = empty) =P(A^c) =\frac{2}{3}$ and whether you should change your decision matters on $P(A)$ instead of $P(A|B = empty)$.
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