theory of tragedy.
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The law of probability in terms of tragedy simply means the probability that a given character will react to a given situation is high because of human nature. Aristotle argued that the 'Universality' of human nature dictates the probability of a character's reaction in a specific circumstance,
"A character must act in accordance with human nature - either through probability, i.e. what 'most of us' would do, or through necessity, i.e. what we are 'forced' to do. An action cannot seem arbitrary - otherwise not only will it violate the determinate structure and break unity, but it will also irritate an audience that sees no basis for the action in human behavior. "
So, for example, when Horatio sees Hamlet (and just about everyone else) dead at the end of the play, his immediate reaction is to kill himself. Suicide is a probable and plausible idea for Horatio to think about given the circumstance.